As reported, the recession will help to reduce the UK carbon emissions by around 7% between 2008 and 2010, but the government’s domestic goal of a 20% reduction by 2010 is still likely to be missed by a wide margin.
The UK is expected to meet its carbon budgets for the first two periods (2008-12 and 2013- 2017), but will just miss the target for the third (2018-22).
CO2 emissions will decline sharply by just over 4% in 2009 and by a further 3% in 2010 as energy use by final users, particularly in industry and road transport, declines due to the large reduction in economic activity and the substitution of gas for coal in electricity generation.
Over 2010-20, total carbon emissions are set to decline more slowly, by around 0.75% pa. Despite the continued growth in emissions from gas-fired generation, the emissions from power generation fall by 0.75-1.25% pa, a result mainly of a phasing-out of coal-fired generation not fitted with FGD end-of-pipe filters.
The decline in power generation emissions, reinforced by lower emissions from industry, commerce, road transport and households, is partially offset by the continuing growth in carbon emissions from air transport, said Cambridge Econometrics.
According to the research, the government will fall short of its renewable electricity targets for 2010 and 2020, and also not meet its EU-set target of a 15% share for renewable energy in total final energy consumption by 2020.
Paul Ekins, professor of UCL Energy Institute at University College London, who is senior consultant to Cambridge Econometrics and co-editor of the report ‘UK Energy and the Environment’, said: “The government is to be applauded for setting statutory carbon targets and budgets, but seems still to need appreciate the difference between setting targets and achieving them.
“Our forecast for 2010 suggests that even with a 7% fall in emissions from 2008 levels, due largely to the recession, the government will fall short of its 20% carbon-reduction goal from the 1990 level, despite this target having been in two election manifestos and the principal subject of two Climate Change Programmes. It is imperative for UK credibility in this area that the 2020 targets do not go the same way, but this requires strong action soon.”
