The report finds that in a decarbonized power system, the future cost of electricity is comparable to the future cost of electricity under the current carbon-intensive infrastructure.
The report said that the pathways do not rely on imported electricity and are based on existing or late stage development technologies including renewables such as solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and also non-renewable low-carbon resources such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear.
When the Roadmap 2050 project started, a number of widely shared assumptions dominated the debate on the future of the European power sector. These included assertions that high-renewable energy scenarios would be too unstable to provide sufficient reliability, that high-renewable scenarios would much more costly, and that technology breakthroughs would be required to move Europe to a zero-carbon power sector. Roadmap 2050 has found all of these assertions to be incorrect.
With the exception of existing hydroelectric facilities, almost all of the power generation capacity required to supply Europe in 2050 will need to be built in the next 40 years. This is a major undertaking regardless of the energy mix, and would pose a massive challenge even in a high-carbon scenario.
The key finding of the Roadmap 2050 project is that the challenge is basically the same in either a high-carbon, low-carbon or zero-carbon energy scenario, in terms of overall cost to consumers and the European economy.
However, capital expenditure on energy infrastructure will need to double in the next 15 years to deliver a zero-carbon power sector by 2050. But in that scenario, the overall energy bill for the economy will be heading downward by 2020, and the day-to-day running costs fall fast throughout the period.
Action before 2015 is a prerequisite for decarbonization by 2050. Immediate policy development and implementation should focus on energy efficiency measures, creating cost savings and reducing demand and investments in regional networks and local smart grids and coordination of power market operations among member states, maximizing the value of low-carbon investments and minimizing back-up supply and loadbalancing requirements.
Roadmap 2050 shows that existing policy frameworks can be adapted to support decarbonization of the European power-sector, but that an holistic approach is needed, with rapid action at both regional and national level required.
The Roadmap 2050 project shows that the benefits of the low-carbon transition far outweigh the challenges and that a commitment now to a systemic low-carbon transformation of the energy sector is ultimately the winning economic strategy for competitiveness, jobs and low-carbon prosperity in Europe.
