The analysis said the new capacity is not always coming onstream where it is most needed, with Chinese capacity increases in particular lagging behind the pace of oil demand growth.

The analysis is part of Evaluate Energy’s new refinery projects tracker service and aggregates capacity expansions at existing refineries as well as announced new refinery construction.

Worldwide, refinery utilization has been rising up quarter by quarter in 2010, with current capacity utilization running at about 84%, according to Evaluate Energy estimates based on world refining capacity of 89.2 million b/d and the IEA’s latest estimate of refinery runs of 74.7 million b/d.

But China will add just 484,000 b/d this year including the start-up of two new 200,000 b/d refineries, falling short of an expected increase in demand of some 766,000 b/d according to the IEA.

Meanwhile, India will add 268,000 b/d of crude distillation capacity in 2010, outpacing its IEA-estimated demand increase of 100,000 b/d this year.

Including longer terms projects, China has a total of 3.3 million b/d of projects either in the planning or construction stage, and with Chinese oil demand set to rise by a further 423,000 b/d in 2011, according to the IEA, these new projects will need to come onstream just to keep pace.

India’s planned expansion in refinery capacity of 268,000 b/d for 2010 follows a large increase during 2009 from the completion of Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery construction.