The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has completed its latest outlook for international energy markets through 2030. The International Energy Outlook 2006 concludes that grid-connected hydroelectric and other renewable generating capacity is projected to increase by 553GW from 2003 to 2030, at an average annual rate of 1.9% largely driven by high oil and natural gas prices.
Much of the projected growth in renewable generation results from the expected completion of large hydroelectric facilities in non-OECD Asia. China has ambitious plans to increase hydroelectric capacity, including completion of the 5.4GW Longtan hydroelectric project by the end of 2007 and the 18.2GW Three Gorges dam project in 2009. India and several other non-OECD Asian countries, including Laos and Vietnam, also have plans to increase hydroelectric capacity, the EIA says.
In Central and South America many nations also have plans to expand their already well-established hydroelectric resources, the analysis finds, with Brazil the largest energy market in Central and South America, and more than 80% of its generation from hydroelectric sources. As a result, Brazil is especially vulnerable to drought induced shortages in electricity supply, says the EIA report, adding that, in general, the nations of Central and South America are not expected to expand hydroelectric resources dramatically but instead are expected to invest in other sources of electricity, allowing them to diversify electricity supplies and reduce reliance on hydro power.
In the OECD, hydroelectric capacity is not expected to grow substantially, and only Canada is expected to complete any sizable hydroelectric projects over the projection. Non-hydro power renewables are instead expected to lead the growth in renewable generating capacity, especially wind in OECD Europe and the United States.
The full report is available at the weblink below.
External weblinksEIA report